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TBR's Brexit Risk Analysis

created using Compare Your Data template
published by TBR

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How will Brexit affect your Economy or Sector?

Do you know?

Do you know....

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How many of the businesses in your area are foreign owned? Which sectors are most at risk to fluctuations in exchange rates? Where your global business linkages are? What % of the workforce in your local area is made up of EU nationals? What occupations EU nationals hold within your local area and the sectors they work in?

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Our findings

One of the areas of greatest concern surrounding Brexit is the future of foreign-owned businesses and the impact of their location decisions. For one client we found that whilst foreign-owned businesses made up a small proportion of total businesses in the area, these large businesses make significant contributions to the local economy.

How many of the businesses in your area are foreign owned?

Which sectors are most at risk to fluctuations in exchange rates?

Volatility in exchange rates causes uncertainty for businesses that trade goods/services globally.  A lack of confidence in the future trading environment would impact on investment by businesses. For one Local Authority (LA), we examined sectors that were most reliant on imports and exports. We were able to highlight that the sectors most at risk to potential exchange rate volatility were financial & insurance and wholesale & retail.   Of all turnover generated in each these sectors, 22% came from exports and a further 22% from imports.

By understanding where the owners, HQs and subsidiaries of businesses in your area are located, we can help you to identify risks associated with Brexit.   For example, following Brexit not all businesses may choose to move out of the UK but some may instead switch future investment or expansion opportunities to other locations.

Where are your global business linkages?

What % of the workforce in your local area is made up of EU nationals?

For one LA we found that in 2015, EU nationals accounted for 15% of the workforce. Furthermore, our data highlighted the area’s growing reliance on this group, with the proportion of jobs filled by UK-nationals having fallen between 2009-2015. This poses a significant risk for the LA in the short-term, as a lack of suitable home-grown talent will impact on the ability to replace EU nationals and future economic growth.

What occupations EU nationals hold within your local area and the sectors they work in?

Research for one LA found that certain occupations were more reliant on EU nationals than others Tracking changes over time, TBR also highlighted that various key occupations were increasingly being filled by EU nationals. Brexit could therefore lead to skills shortages and/or gaps in vital sectors. This highlights the specific risks for these sectors associated with policies or actions that may result from returning these key workers to their native countries.

Get in touch

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We combine our own unique in-house database, TCR, with a host of official data sources to provide you with valuable insight to: • Understand how your area will perform against others within the region and UK, and; • To enable you to identify potential vulnerabilities or opportunities within your local economy and to do so in good time, to allow for you to coordinate a response. For more information on how we can help you prepare for Brexit contact: Andrew Graves DL: 0191 279 0902 M: 07966 582 133 E: [email protected] W: www.tbr.co.uk Follow us @TBR_online